Who's likely to hit 800 home runs?
ESPN - Neyer: Who's chasing Bonds? - MLB
Rob Neyer runs Bill James' Favorite Toy to see who among active players has a chance of hitting 800 career home runs, figuring that's why it will take to overtake Barry Bonds ultimate career total.
Results:
Alex Rodriguez has almost a 50-50 chance of someday breaking the 800 barrier. (And even a 7 percent chance of some day hitting 1,000!) The trick for him will be maintaining his health. One injury-ridden or missed season will set him back a great deal.
Ryan Howard has a 7% chance of breaking 800, but his late start in the majors (he didn't reach the majors full-time until he was 25) sets him back a great deal.
Read the whole article to see who else has a shot and why.