Phillies Postseason Chances
Baseball Prospectus' Postseason Odds has the Phillies with a 41% chance of making the playoffs, with the division title being more likely than the wild card.
I'm still not getting my hopes up.
UPDATE: Also note that there is a 1-in-125 chance of a 5-way tie for the three playoff spots up for grabs (NL East & West champs, plus Wild Card). If that happens, I may have to call out of work to watch the tie-breaker games on TV. It'll be friggin' awesome. See the discussion at Baseball Think Factory to see what a tie-breaker scenario would look like. (Start here and read down.)
In addition, The Good Phight point outs:
What's great about this is that the Phillies fan dream scenario is entirely possible: the Phillies could end the season with the best record in the NL and the Mets could fail to make the playoffs. I'll take simply the Phillies making the playoffs, but dreaming ain't bad either.
I love the end of September. I'd love October even more, but Tim McCarver is still announcing the games.