Gazizza.Net

I am not so sure, I asked my Catholic friend there about it and the family seems to like him, even when he expresses anti-clerical views they say, he still prays the rosary, and in Latin America that has significance. They style him as Simon Bolivar, more like the "protector de poder popular" than as Presidente or more as "General en Jefe" against the threat they perceive and the pressure they perceive we are excerpting on them. They also tell me that if democracy means getting the vote, they have been voting more now than in the last 200 years. On average 2 times a month regionally and in local councils almost everyday on the way home from work.

I think if we lessen up on the threats, it will be easier to deal with him on a state-to-state basis...and build up commercial ties that will change the politics and cultural antagonism over time. Cultural ties would be easy to bridge, and economic ones I am sure would follow.

So, under the current circumstances I would not be surprised to see him pull it off. As of today my friend Geraldine who does not agree with him sent me an e-mail saying he has about 63% popular support. She had just received a caritas care package for her kids, and wanted to let me know how things were going. Her opposition party Podemos seems to be doing ok also. But there are quite a few agitators we sent there who are not acting in the interest of either party, according to her. Also she said the US is spreading a rumor that the "General" is supporting middle eastern terrorism which makes her quite angry because it is a Catholic dominant country and she felt it was an attack on nationhood and the church at the same time.

Given that kind of environment, I wouldn't be surprised if he does win. But we'll wait and see. I think if we were not trying so hard to isolate the guy and bring him into the fold it would be a lot easier to work with his government.

You probably have more knowledge of the situation than I do, but given that polls say it's neck and neck and people lie to polls if they're concerned about possible retribution and are more honest in a secret ballot, I can't be as sure as you are. Plus, Chavez seems to be quite clearly setting the groundwork for a dictatorship, and the Catholic Church there is quite vocal in their opposition to him. Add it all up and I don't trust the guy.